Archive for July 26th, 2009

Bernanke Economy Will Be Stronger Than Before Crisis

Sunday, July 26th, 2009

NEW YORK: Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said Sunday that lessons learned from the recession and the financial crisis will help make the economy stronger than it was before the crisis. Speaking at a town hall event at the Kansas City, Mo., Fed called “Bernanke on the Record,” the chairman answered questions from members of the public as well as moderator Jim Lehrer of PBS. “The silver lining in this whole thing is that people are starting to save more, since they saw what happened with 401(k) investments,” Bernanke said. “People are adopting good habits, so not only will we will be back on track, but the economy will be stronger than it had been before this started.”The Fed chairman also noted that government regulators are working to ensure that such a crisis can never happen again by addressing the issue of too big to fail and lobbying Congress to pass a regulatory reform bill.0:00
/2:17Buffett praises Bernanke”I don’t think we’ll ever completely eliminate financial crises, but there are ways to make sure one this severe never happens again,” Bernanke said. “We need to have a council or group of regulators that look at the financial system as a whole and look for gaps. And ‘too big to fail’ has to go.”Bernanke suggested instituting a new kind of bankruptcy process for big non-bank financial institutions similar to what the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. uses for banks. “Sell [a large corporation] off, let it fail, but ensure that the whole financial system is not brought down with it,” he said.Slow recovery: Facing questions from many concerned consumers, Bernanke sought to assure the audience by noting that “recessions happen.” Though he said this is the worst recession since the Great Depression, he also said that, like all prior economic downturns, this one will end too.Bernanke said the economy is beginning to show signs of improvement, but recovery will be gradual. He said gross domestic product will likely rise by the end of the year into 2010, but job growth will lag. He conceded, “economic forecasts make weather forecasts look like physics,” but said unemployment will top out above 10% before falling back in the second half of next year.Taking heat: In addition to questions about timing of the recovery, Bernanke also took heat from some small business owners and people who had lost their jobs about how the Fed handled the crisis. Many questioned whether it was problematic for the Fed to reward banks’ irresponsible behavior by bailing out financial institutions. But Bernanke said he was left with no choice.”Nothing made me more frustrated than having to intervene in a couple cases where wild bets threatened to bring down the financial system,” he said. “But I was not going to be the Federal Reserve chairman who presided over the second Great Depression.”Though the Fed chairman mostly stood by the Fed’s decisions, on the subject of subprime lending regulation, he said the Fed deserved some criticism.”We were late in addressing the subprime lending problem,” Bernanke admitted. “We put together a set of rules that apply to all lenders, and I hope that solves the problem, but those weren’t in place early enough. We have to take some heat for that, I think that’s appropriate.”He declined to say specifically that he opposes efforts by Congress and the Obama administration to create a separate consumer financial protection agency. But he said there were drawbacks to it, including possible “duplicative efforts” in monitoring. And he defended the Fed as being “very active” in the last three years on the consumer protection issue.Bernanke was even more defiant about a congressional proposal to audit Fed monetary policy and actions. He said politics need to remain separate from the Fed to ensure that inflation and financial stability remain in balance.”It is incredibly important that the Fed maintain its independence — it is so critical to the stability of economy,” Bernanke said. “I don’t think people realize that Congress’ bill would allow the Government Accountability Office to be able to audit Fed decisions. That’s not congruent with independence.”There were lighter moments at the town hall, though. When one particularly well-prepared questioner asked Bernanke a question about the Great Depression, Bernanke said, “I see you’ve read my book. I’m happy to autograph it for you after we’re done.”And when one audience member asked if he had any investing tips, Bernanke warned that he wasn’t licensed to do so. But he said to diversify investments between stocks and other instruments, and he added: “Don’t try to time the market. There might be a couple of people in the world who can time the market, but if there are, they’re not telling you.”

Source:CNN

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Gas Prices Down 7 Cents In Past Two Weeks

Sunday, July 26th, 2009

ATLANTA (CNN) — Gasoline prices fell more than 7 cents a gallon over the past two weeks, despite a rise in crude oil prices, according to a survey published Sunday.The average price of a gallon of self-serve regular gasoline at metropolitan-area stations was 2.4859, the Lundberg Survey found — a decline of 7.14 cents from two weeks ago. That drop came despite an 8-per-gallon rise in the price of crude oil in that period, said survey publisher Trilby Lundberg.”The price would have risen instead of falling … if not for profit-margin losses for refiners and retailers,” she said. “Both refiners and gasoline retailers failed to pass through the higher oil prices and instead took cuts in their own margins.”Poor demand for gasoline because of rising unemployment was one reason the refiners and retailers absorbed the cuts, she said.But she added they “can’t hold out forever.”"They will need to pass on to consumers through the system at least a dime’s worth of oil price pressure,” she said.”I think that it will be soon,” she added. “For example, even if crude prices slip back slightly I think we can expect a gentle rise in retail gasoline,” both because of the current thin market levels and the usual lag time for price rises to work through the system.In fact, the daily gas price survey conducted for motorist group AAA has shown the national average for regular has risen the past five days. On Sunday, it was up 1.1 cents to 2.492 a gallon.The current prices are 1.51 per gallon below where they were a year ago, Lundberg said. On July 29, 2008, the average price was 3.9959 a gallon, down from that summer’s peak of 4.1124.The city with the lowest average price in the latest survey was Jackson, Miss., with 2.22 a gallon for regular self-serve. The highest average was in Honolulu, at 3.03, Lundberg said.Here are the average prices in some other cities: Houston, 2.29; Tucson, Ariz., 2.30; Little Rock, Ark., 2.33; Atlanta, 2.35; Cleveland, 2.40; Detroit, 2.43; Minneapolis, 2.49; Hartford, Conn., 2.55; Portland, Ore., 2.60; San Diego, 2.76.

Source:CNN

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Kuwaiti Financier Named In SEC Suit Is Apparent Suicide

Sunday, July 26th, 2009

KUWAIT (Reuters) — A brash Kuwaiti financier facing a fraud suit by U.S. authorities was found dead Sunday in an apparent suicide that sent shockwaves through the Gulf Arab financial sector.A security source told Reuters that Hazem Al-Braikan appeared to have died from a single gunshot wound to the side of the head, while a policeman standing outside Braikan’s house said the well-connected financier, 37, had shot himself.Braikan was the CEO of Al Raya Investment, which is 10% owned by Citigroup Inc (C, Fortune 500)., and had been at the center of a financial scandal that erupted last week.The Securities and Exchange Commission filed a lawsuit against him and two other finance firms last week, saying they had improperly earned millions of dollars from trades in two U.S. firms, Harman International Industries Inc. (HAR) and Textron Inc. (TXT, Fortune 500) “It’s very sad news. This crisis has seen a lot of people in the Gulf and across the world fall from grace, and each person is different in terms of their ability to handle pressure,” said Mohammed Yasin, chief executive of Shuaa Securities, in Dubai.A policeman at Braikan’s house in the Kuwait City district of al-Rawda told Reuters that Braikan’s brother had called for help.0:00
/1:17Madoff gets the maxAn employee at Al Raya said Braikan had not come to work Sunday, the start of the working week in the Gulf region.”We are shocked. Everybody is shocked,” the employee said by telephone. “We called his brother, and he confirmed the news.”He was here at the office yesterday until 7 or 8 at night. I don’t know why he decided to end it.”Had declined comment: Reached by Reuters on Saturday, the day before his death, Braikan declined to comment on the case.”I have nothing to say. It is in the hands of the lawyers now.”Hours later, he issued a statement saying he had named a U.S. attorney to review case and defend him, declaring: “I would like to confirm on the soundness of my legal situation.”In papers filed in Manhattan federal court last week, the SEC said Braikan and entities linked to him earned more than 5 million from well-timed trades in the two U.S. firms.Other defendants include United Gulf Bank and KIPCO Asset Management Co (KAMCO). Both are part of the Kuwait Projects Co (KIPCO) group.All the firms have denied the allegations.KIPCO is affiliated with senior members of Kuwait’s ruling al-Sabah family and is the biggest investment firm by assets in Kuwait.KAMCO and United Gulf Bank said Friday they made no gain from trading in the shares of Harman and Textron.Shares in KIPCO slid 3.5% on the Kuwaiti stock market Sunday, the first trading day after the lawsuit was filed.The SEC said it obtained an emergency court order freezing the trading profits in U.S. accounts held by Braikan and the other firms.An SEC official said an investigation began soon after learning about a takeover hoax last Monday, at the same time as the markets and media outlets.Harman shares briefly soared after several media outlets reported that a private investment firm called Arabian Peninsula Group planned to buy it at almost double its market price.The incident was similar to a phony offer for Textron in April from a United Arab Emirates-Kuwait consortium.

Source:CNN

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A Look At The Week Ahead For Stocks

Sunday, July 26th, 2009
A Look At The Week Ahead For Stocks - Jul 26 2009

NEW YORK: Can a recharged stock market rally withstand the biggest week of corporate profit reports yet?Maybe. “As long as earnings continue to surprise to the upside and revenues aren’t disasterous, the market should move higher in this period,” said Timothy Ghriskey, chief investment officer at Solaris Asset Management. “But then we get to August, when Wall Street tends to go on vacation and you could see some consolidation then,” he said. This week brings profit reports from 146 of the S&P 500 companies, or 29% of the broad index. That list includes a number of oil services firms, including Dow components Chevron and Exxon Mobil. Other big companies due to report include Dow stocks Travelers, Walt Disney and Verizon Communications.”Given the pessimistic outlook going into the earnings period, the results have been pretty good so far, spurring the last week or so of gains,” said Karl Mills, president and chief investment officer at Jurika Mills & Keifer.”But the economic recovery is going to be a jerky W and the market will probaby follow the same pattern,” Mills said. “For stocks, we’re probably near the top of the current upswing.”But for the last two weeks, stocks have surged, with the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq composite all back at October-November levels as investors welcomed better-than-expected earnings from a rash of companies. But a late Thursday one-two punch of disappointing results from Microsoft (MSFT, Fortune 500) and Amazon.com (AMZN, Fortune 500) reminded market makers that “less bad” profits doesn’t mean good profits. Stocks slipped in the month ahead of the start of the earnings period, as investors worried that corporate profits would disappoint and that the market had gotten ahead of any economic recovery. This week also brings a batch of potentially market-moving economic news, including readings on housing, consumer confidence, durable goods orders and gross domestic product growth.Eye on corporate reports: Approximately 37% of the S&P 500 has reported, and the results have generally been better than expected, with earnings growth outpacing revenue growth. Profits are expected to have dropped over 30% versus a year ago, according to earnings tracker Thomson Reuters.So far 77% of the companies that have reported results have beat expectations — reflecting both corporate pessimism and analyst skepticism in the weeks heading into the reporting period. That 77% figure will likely come down a bit by the time all the results are in, said John Butters, senior research analyst at Thomson Reuters. But if that number holds up, the second quarter will mark the highest percentage of upside surprises since Thomson began tracking results in 1998.”It’s really been companies across the board beating, with most sectors running higher,” Butters said. “But the caveat is we have more than 60% of the S&P 500 less to go, so the results will probably change.”ResultsMonday: Dow component Verizon Communications (VZ, Fortune 500) is due to report results in the morning. The telecom is expected to have earned 63 cents per share versus 67 cents a year earlier, according to a consensus of analysts surveyed by earnings tracker Thomson Reuters. Amgen (AMGN, Fortune 500) and Honeywell (HON, Fortune 500) are also expected to report results. Tuesday: Oil company Valero Energy (VLO, Fortune 500) is expected to have lost 50 cents per share after gaining 1.37 per share a year ago. Viacom (VIA) and BP (BP) are also expected to report.Wednesday: Sprint Nextel (S, Fortune 500) is expected to report a loss of 2 cents per share versus a profit of 6 cents a year ago. CNNMoney.com parent Time Warner (TWX, Fortune 500) is expected to have earned 37 cents per share versus 24 cents a year ago. Aetna (AET, Fortune 500) and ConocoPhillips (COP, Fortune 500) are also due to report.Thursday: Three Dow components are due to report results, led by Exxon Mobil (XOM, Fortune 500). The No. 1 oil services company is expected to report a profit of 1.03 versus 2.27. Financial services firm Travelers (TRV, Fortune 500) is expected to have earned 1.28 per share versus 1.50 a year ago. Walt Disney (DIS, Fortune 500) is expected to have earned 50 cents per share versus 62 cents a year ago.Motorola (MOT, Fortune 500), Dow Chemical (DOW, Fortune 500), Cigna (CI, Fortune 500) and MetLife (MET, Fortune 500) are also on tap.Friday: Dow component Chevron (CVX, Fortune 500) is expected to report earnings of 90 cents per share, versus 2.90 a year earlier.EconomyMonday: The Commerce Department releases its new home sales index after the start of trading. Sales are expected to have rise to a 355,000 unit annualized rate in June, according to a consensus of economists surveyed by Briefing.com. Sales stood at a 342,000 unit annualized rate in May.Tuesday: The July consumer confidence report from the Conference Board is expected to show continued weakness as consumers remain wary about the economic outlook. The index is expected to have fallen to 48.7 from 49.3 in June.The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price index is expected to have fallen 17.8% in May versus a year ago, after falling 18.1% in April.0:00
/4:53Buffett: Bet on AmericaWednesday: The June durable goods orders report, from the Census Bureau, is due in the morning. Orders are expected to have fallen 0.5% after rising 1.8% in the previous month. Orders excluding transportation are expected to have risen 0.1% in June after rising 1.1% in May.The weekly crude oil inventories report from the Energy Information Administration is also due in the morning. In the afternoon, the Federal Reserve releases its periodic “beige book” report on economic activity in its 12 districts. Thursday: Weekly unemployment claims are due in the morning. The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment is expected to have risen to 585,000 from 554,000 in the previous week.Friday: The initial reading on second-quarter gross domestic product growth is due in the morning. GDP is expected to have contracted at a 1.5% annualized rate, according to forecasts. GDP shrank at a 5.5% annualized rate in the first quarter. The Chicago PMI, a regional reading on manufacturing, is expected to have risen to 42 in July from 39.9 in June.

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