At the Forex currency market the Japanese Yen rate is traded upward on Friday; investors’ interest to the currency is growing up while main external catalysts for trades have already been used.
Forex forecast: MACD indicator is in the negative area for the pair USD/JPY and started to go up, while volumes are low, giving a weak buy signal. Stochastic Oscillator goes down in the neutral zone and is giving a sell signal.
Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at the level of 77.00, the pair will go to ? 76.80 and 76.50.
It became known today that retail sale sincreased by 2.5% y/y in December against decline of 2.2% in November. These findings are extremely interesting because they demonstrate that, despite significant slump in economy, retail sales can be in favourable position. The latest data was the strongest one over the last six months; apparently, consumers’ optimism and appetite for buying is back again.
At the same time we cannot disregard the fact that, due to continuing decline of export levels and losses in the manufacturing sector, income of Japanese people will decrease as well, and this will inevitable affect retailers.
Deflation still preserves in the country: net consumer prices fell by 0.1% in December, this has been the third consecutive fall in the index. Factors are the same: rising Yen, decline in global demand and prices for imports.
It became known earlier that trade deficit has been recorded in Japan for the first time in 30 years. Exports in the country fell in December for the third time, which triggered trade deficit on annual basis. According to the Ministry of Finance, shipments reduced by 8% y/ylast month. Budget deficit in Japan amounted to $32 billion (2.49 trillion yen). It seems that Japanese economy has been deprived of one of the main supportive tools – its exports. Edition of Nikkei noted on Friday that budget deficit in Japan will be above 17 trillion yen in 2015, which will be 3.5% of country’s GDP, even if government raises tax on consumption. Officially Japan plans to reduce budget deficit to 3.2% of GDP in 2015 in order to reduce the index twice versus to 2010.
